In mid - June 2026, the coke market witnessed a divergent pattern where spot prices remained robust while futures prices weakened. The previous price - increasing Positive factors had been gradually realized, and the market's main driving force shifted from cost support to the expectation of a weakening off - season, causing the unilateral upward trend to subside.
I. Recent Market Review
In June, coke spot prices continued to rise. The eighth - round price increase was successfully implemented, with a 50 yuan/ton increase for wet - quenched coke and a 55 yuan/ton increase for dry - quenched coke. As a result, the profitability of coking enterprises was significantly restored. Futures prices first soared and then declined. The main contract reached a high of 2126 yuan/ton in the first ten - day period of the month, and then continued to fall in the second half of the month. By June 26th, it closed at 1946 yuan/ton, highlighting the characteristics of “strong reality, weak expectation”. The downstream's suppression of the raw material side's upward movement was evident. In the first ten - day period, the tight coal supply and low inventory spurred price - increasing sentiment. In the middle and late ten - day periods, as the Positive factors were realized, concerns about the off - season grew, and the driving force for price increases weakened.
II. Driving Factors of this Upward Trend
1. High Coking Coal Costs as a Floor
Overall, the resumption of coal mine production fell short of expectations. According to the latest survey results from Mysteel: Since May 23rd, a total of 160 coking coal mines in Shanxi have been shut down, with a total production capacity of 199.4 million tons. As of June 24th, 93 mines had resumed production, with a total production capacity of 112.9 million tons. On that day, a total of 67 mines were still shut down, with a total production capacity of 86.5 million tons. The tight supply of coking coal led to a low level of raw material inventory for coking enterprises. Their replenishment demand stabilized coal prices. The high raw material costs squeezed coking profits, forcing multiple rounds of coke price increases, which was the core driving force of this price - rising cycle.
2. Contraction in Coke Supply and Tight Spot Resources
High coal prices dampened the production willingness of coking enterprises. Some enterprises slightly restricted production. Coking enterprises maintained a low level of their own inventory, and steel mills received insufficient supplies. The circulation of spot goods was tight, and multiple rounds of price increases were smoothly implemented, with the overall pace being relatively fast.
3. Stable Rigid Demand from Steel Mills Absorbing Price Increases
In the first ten - day period of June, the blast - furnace start - up rate and hot metal output remained high. Although the steel market was gradually entering the off - season and steel prices were under pressure, steel mills did not significantly reduce production. The procurement demand for coke was stable, and there was relatively little resistance to price increases.
III. Accumulating Negative Factors and Reversal of Market Logic
1. Weakening Downstream Demand and Pressured Steel Mill Profits
The demand for steel in the building materials and manufacturing industries declined during the off - season, leading to weakening steel prices. Recently, the ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an common square billet resources was reported at 2980 yuan/ton. The continuous price increases of coke significantly increased the costs of steel - making and iron - smelting, pushing most steel mills to the break - even point. There is an expectation of an increase in seasonal blast - furnace maintenance in the future, and the rigid demand for coke will weaken accordingly.
2. Easing of Coking Coal Supply and Weakening of Cost Support
Shut - down coal mines gradually resumed production, leading to a marginally looser supply of coking coal. The upward trend of coal prices slowed down, and the cost support for the passive price increases of coke weakened.
3. Futures Anticipating Pessimistic Off - Season Expectations in Advance
Long - position funds cashed out and left the market. The futures market declined in advance, showing a clear deviation from the strong spot market, which also cooled the sentiment in the spot market.
IV. Future Market Forecast
In the short term, there is still a possibility of a slight strengthening of spot prices. The probability of the implementation of the ninth - round price increase is relatively high. Low inventory and coal price support will keep prices oscillating at a high level. In the medium term, the simultaneous decline in demand and weakening of costs indicate that the ninth - round price increase is likely to be the end of this upward cycle. The price center of coke will loosen, spot market sentiment will cool down, and both spot and futures prices will enter a high - level decline range. In the long term, the market trend depends on the recovery of steel demand, the extent of steel mill production cuts, and the fluctuations of coking coal prices. It is difficult to restart a significant upward trend in the short term.