Since October, the national coking coal capacity utilization rate has continued to decline, indicating a relatively tight supply. On the demand side, supported by relatively high pig iron production, steel mills still have pent-up demand for restocking, but weak end-user consumption has limited upward potential.
The market as a whole has entered an adjustment cycle of "low profits, low operating rates, and controlled inventory." On November 7th, coking plants initiated the fourth round of price increases. Although steel mills have not yet responded, there is a high probability that this will be implemented this week. Steel mills' restocking demand has not been met, and declining coking plant output has strengthened the bargaining power of coking plants by continuously depleting steel mills' coking coal inventories. Coupled with the inertia of spot price increases, the conditions for a price increase are quite sufficient in the short term, making its implementation highly likely.
In summary, from the supply side, coking coal production continues to decline, supply is contracting slightly, and coking plants are still operating at a loss. On the demand side, although steel mill operating rates are declining and profits are poor, the current low inventory environment provides strong support for the fourth round of coking coal price increases. Therefore, after short-term speculation, the fourth round is highly likely to be implemented.